The Bell-end Curve : A Statistical Analysis Of Dickheads In MESBG

 Hear me now!


If you've been on the internet for more than a year, you have probably stumbled upon the Hot / Crazy Matrix, which is a crude but accurate evaluation of the male / female relationship. I'm pretty bored, so thought I would turn some free time into a basic consideration of players in the MESBG scene. 


2023 - Apres Moi, Le Deluge

Late 2022 began an increase in numbers of players of mesbg. Its seen in the data - a rise in tournament numbers, and folk registered in the gbhl. 2023 was celebrated as the largest participation year ever, but at the same time are these new people *the right people*? Prepare for a tirade of epic proportions from entirely my own viewpoint. 


The Make-Up Of "That Guy"

So, how will you know if you ae playing "That Guy"? Here is a sure-fire guide you can deploy that will let you know within 5 minutes of starting your game that will let you mentally prepare for 90 minutes of misery:

• Age. That Guy is not a teen, nor over 35. This is because old folk are mainly just happy to still wake up in the morning, and the young have not developed the required mental state.
• Systems. That Guy is not new to wargaming. They have come from 40k and have picked up mesbg as a second system (or third if they dabble in Malifaux)
• Army choice. They have not picked their army based on favorite book character or cool scenes in the film. If you see Beornings thats a red flag. If the preamble suggests that they have started with Angmar, but have now moved onto Beornings then you need to gtf out of Dodge. 
• "Cut the chatter, Red 2". You're getting no bantz. They're not here to make friends which is good because....
• Its a two-dayer and no-one is sharing accommodation or lifts with them. If this includes players that have travelled from their region then its a sure-fire sign that this is going to be as fun as being hit in the face by a spade. 
• Trying hard. This fits their army choice. They have played a while and realised that 50% wins is actually above average and their target is 4/6 wins. The difference here is less about attitude and more fine margins. These guys are invested and are much more focused in the turn by turn minutiae than long term masterplans. If you are playing loose, they will be picking up on it and calling that TO over. 
• The minor flags: they have a custom measurer / are overly pedantic about moving their horde army even in the initial phases / refuse to play "intent". 

This list is not definitive. Nor is a single item enough to put that person in the bin. In a hobby that attracts "characters" it could be that there is just a clash in personality - Ive got one, my opponent might not have. But lets assess further.


What A Normal Distribution Looks Like, And Where These Guys Reside

There are several assumptions and references here. The first is that you spend a minute familiarising yourself with some basic idea of how statistics work. We are going to consider a set of tables for wargaming, and that we will assume that the people there have been involved in several games in the season and have played for a year. This will give enough time for those who are generally awful to give up; the players who have serious rage issues to have been banned, etc.

The top image shows a normal distribution, along with standard deviations. The lower shows the same curve chopped into "stanines" with each stanine being 1/2 of a standard deviation. The difference being that the mean occurs in the centre of the 5th stanine. 

This is slightly better, as it takes the top image and puts some percentages in it. Lets have a little look, and see if there is some way of finding the hobby danger zone. Its easier if we eliminate the extremes. The extreme right of the curve, demarked at beyond 2 standard deviations away, represents 2.2% of the players in the 2023 GBHL. Or around 35 players. They are bloody good at it. They win with any army, including hobbits. With an arm behind their backs. Even after a night partying. Then we have the extreme left. The same does apply here, as you do have to try to be consistently bad. But we are going to go a step further, as we assumed a year of play. And these chaps are still playing. On the left side, we are grouping the are from -1sd westwards as the "legends". 

Now we have to be a bit creative. Our "guys" have been playing a year and not quit. So they must be doing something right. Because 3 wins in a 6 game event is better than average, we are after the area that represents a player who is trying hard to come home with 4/6 wins. This DANGER AREA is quite tight. It is above 1sd, but below 2sd. Its more accurately that region of stanine 6 and including the lower half of stanine 7. That's roughly a region between 250 and 550 of the 2023 Rankings! 

Note that this is not a guarantee that you're going to have a bad time. But if you've been through the Red Flag Guide, and your spidey senses are tingling....


Self-Referring For Dickhead Rehab

So, you've crunched your own numbers and your own graphs comes out like this:

Then have no fear. Everyone can fall down the slope. There is help. You need to move away from the dark side, and back into the light. One sure fire way is to locate and identify the Legends. Move near them and in time you may osmose some of their greatness. You cant expect to jump into some fancy dress overnight, but perhaps consider a hat, or even grow a moustache. Keep playing your Dragon Emperor....but dont use the legion. Ask you opponent a couple of questions - do they have a cat? What two cheeses would they tale if they were going to be marooned on a desert island.